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New Yorkers will discover who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who governs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by significant margins across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's power moves, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd